Consumer prices rose 8.6% in May in the US… Fed 75bp interest rate hike mention

In May, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.6% year-on-year, which is affecting the financial market. It is analyzed that the number of interest rates will increase even further in the US Federal Reserve Market Committee on 14-15, with the number exceeding the market expectation and exceeding the consumer price growth rate of 8.3%in April.

At the same time, there are concerns about stagflation at the same time as the items that have increased the consumer price index are agricultural and energy prices, and that the economic growth rate in the second quarter will be lowered in the first quarter. There are also observations that if the stagflation caused by the oil shock in the 1970s is similar to the stagflation, the Fed's rate hike can be adjusted.

According to the market watch and CNN business on the 11th (local time), the US consumer price index rose 8.6%year-on-year, exceeding 8.3%forecast and 8.3%in April. The inflation rate in May is the highest since 1981. The source of flights, except for food and energy prices, rose 6%.

Immediately after the consumer price index was announced on the 10th, the US stock market was weak. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, which is related to daily necessities, fell 2.91%. The US two-year Treasury bonds also rose to 3%, rising the largest since 2008.

Barclays analysts said, The May consumer price index has made enough reasons for the US Fed to surprise the market. I analyzed. It was in November 1994 that the Fed raised the 75bp interest rate.

There is also an opinion that the economic recession should be wary of the stag flash. Russian-Ukrainian crisis, rising oil prices, and inflation, are now similar to the 1970s oil shocks. In the end, the rate of interest rate may be significant, which may lead to limitations.

Atlanta Federal Banks' GDP forecasts in the second quarter of the United States are 0.9%, lower than that of 1.5% in 1Q. If the economic downturn continues for the second consecutive quarter, it can be seen as a contract.

US consumer credit is also increasing due to rising consumer goods prices. Socie Eteenera Albert Edwards Global Strategic Analyst analyzed, Is the consumer economy a sign of healthy or a signal of the end of imports as imports.

Meanwhile, the US June Open Market Committee will be held on 14-15.